Reconstruction of Monthly Surface Nutrient Concentrations in the Yellow and Bohai Seas from 2003–2019 Using Machine Learning

Abstract

Monitoring the spatiotemporal variability of nutrient concentrations in shelf seas is important for understanding marine primary productivity and ecological problems. However, long time-series and high spatial-resolution nutrient concentration data are difficult to obtain using only on ship-based measurements. In this study, we developed a machine-learning approach to reconstruct monthly sea-surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), and dissolved silicate (DSi) concentrations in the Yellow and Bohai seas from 2003–2019. A large amount of in situ measured data were first used to train the machine-learning model and derive a reliable model with input of environmental data (including sea-surface temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a, and Kd490) and output of DIN, DIP, and DSi concentrations. Then, longitudinal (2003–2019) monthly satellite remote-sensing environmental data were input into the model to reconstruct the surface nutrient concentrations. The results showed that the nutrient concentrations in nearshore (water depth < 40 m) and offshore (water depth > 40 m) waters had opposite seasonal variabilities; the highest (lowest) in summer in nearshore (offshore) waters and the lowest (highest) in winter in nearshore (offshore) waters. However, the DIN:DIP and DIN:DSi in most regions were consistently higher in spring and summer than in autumn and winter, and generally exceeded the Redfield ratio. From 2003–2019, DIN showed an increasing trend in nearshore waters (average 0.14 μmol/L/y), while DSi showed a slight increasing trend in the Changjiang River Estuary (0.06 μmol/L/y) but a decreasing trend in the Yellow River Estuary (–0.03 μmol/L/y), and DIP exhibited no significant trend. Furthermore, surface nutrient concentrations were sensitive to changes in sea-surface temperature and salinity, with distinct responses between nearshore and offshore waters. We believe that our novel machine learning method can be applied to other shelf seas based on sufficient observational data to reconstruct a long time-series and high spatial resolution sea-surface nutrient concentrations.