Climate Variability and Transnational Migration: A Dyadic Analysis

Abstract

This research builds upon and extends earlier research by studying whether people leave their homes and migrate to other states due to weather changes associated with climate variability. In particular, I examine how push and pull factors jointly influence emigration. Empirically, the theoretical arguments are analysed quantitatively with time-series cross-section data on transnational migration since the 1960s. The results suggest that climate indicators are strongly and robustly associated with transnational migration. The dyadic nature of the analysis allows for a close examination of patterns across pairs of countries by clearly distinguishing between “source” and “destination.” Controlling for unobserved influences via country and year fixed effects, as well as a series of robustness checks, further increases the confidence in this finding. This research substantially improves our understanding of climate-induced migration and emphasizes that it is, in fact, a global phenomenon.