Optimization of Abnormal Hydraulic Fracturing Conditions of Unconventional Natural Gas Reservoirs Based on a Surrogate Model

Abstract

Abnormal conditions greatly reduce the efficiency of hydraulic fracturing of unconventional gas reservoirs. Optimizing the fracturing scheme is crucial to minimize the likelihood of abnormal operational conditions, such as pressure channeling, casing deformation, and proppant plugging. This paper proposes a novel machine learning-based method for optimizing abnormal conditions during hydraulic fracturing of unconventional natural gas reservoirs. Firstly, the main controlling factors of abnormal conditions are selected through a hybrid controlling analysis, upon which a surrogate model is established for predicting the occurrence probability of abnormal conditions, rather than whether abnormal conditions happen or not. Subsequently, a machine learning-based optimization algorithm is developed to minimize the occurrence probability of abnormal conditions, acknowledging their inevitability during the fracturing process. The optimal results demonstrate the proposed method outperforms traditional methods, on average. The proposed methodology is more in line with the needs of practical operation in an environment full of uncertainty.