Quantifying the Effect of Socio-Economic Predictors and the Built Environment on Mental Health Events in Little Rock, AR

Author:

Ek Alfieri1,Drawve Grant2,Robinson Samantha1ORCID,Datta Jyotishka3ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA

2. Department of Sociology and Criminology, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA

3. Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA

Abstract

Law enforcement agencies continue to grow in the use of spatial analysis to assist in identifying patterns of outcomes. Despite the critical nature of proper resource allocation for mental health incidents, there has been little progress in statistical modeling of the geo-spatial nature of mental health events in Little Rock, Arkansas. In this article, we provide insights into the spatial nature of mental health data from Little Rock, Arkansas between 2015 and 2018, under a supervised spatial modeling framework. We provide evidence of spatial clustering and identify the important features influencing such heterogeneity via a spatially informed hierarchy of generalized linear, tree-based, and spatial regression models, viz. the Poisson regression model, the random forest model, the spatial Durbin error model, and the Manski model. The insights obtained from these different models are presented here along with their relative predictive performances. The inferential tools developed here can be used in a broad variety of spatial modeling contexts and have the potential to aid both law enforcement agencies and the city in properly allocating resources. We were able to identify several built-environment and socio-demographic measures related to mental health calls while noting that the results indicated that there are unmeasured factors that contribute to the number of events.

Funder

National Science Foundation Division of Mathematical Sciences

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),Computers in Earth Sciences,Geography, Planning and Development

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