A Multi-Scale Blueprint for Building the Decision Context to Implement Climate Change Adaptation on National Wildlife Refuges in the United States

Abstract

Climate change and ecological transformation are causing natural resource management to be applied to nonstationary systems. Managers can respond to dynamic ecosystems by resisting, accepting, or directing ecological change. Management response is constrained by a decision context, defined as an interconnected social system of values, rules, and knowledge that affects how problems can be addressed. We provide a multi-scale blueprint for creating a decision context that increases capacity for implementing climate adaptation, including novel approaches in the National Wildlife Refuge System, a continental conservation network administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. We use the Tetlin National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska as case study to illustrate blueprint concepts and to provide “proof-of-concept” for application. The blueprint builds on ideas and practices from scenario planning, adaptive management, and adaptive pathway planning, which are approaches that promote action in the face of uncertainty. Management considerations focus on stewarding biodiversity in a changing climate by addressing what futures are possible, what interventions can be used to shape future conditions, and how to coordinate a regional conservation strategy. The blueprint focus on decision context promotes a longer-term social process of engagement that is complementary to, but larger than, any one decision process.