Non-Stationary Effects of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on January Temperatures in Korea

Abstract

In recent decades, extremely cold winters have occurred repeatedly throughout the Northern Hemisphere, including the Korean Peninsula (hereafter, Korea). Typically, cold winter temperatures in Korea can be linked to the strengthening of the Siberian High (SH). Although previous studies have investigated the typical relationship between the SH and winter temperatures in Korea, this study uniquely focused on a change in the relationship, which reflects the influence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A significant change in the 15-year moving correlation between the SH and the surface air temperature average in Korea (K-tas) was observed in January. The correlation changed from −0.80 during 1971–1990 to −0.16 during 1991–2010. The mean sea-level pressure pattern regressed with the temperature, and a singular value decomposition analysis that incorporated the temperature and pressure supports that the negative high correlation during 1971–1990 was largely affected by AO. This connection with AO is substantiated by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis with an upper-level geopotential height at 300 hPa. In the second mode of the EOF, the temperature and pressure patterns were primarily affected by ENSO during 1991–2010. Consequently, the interdecadal change in correlation between K-tas and the SH in January can be attributed to the dominant effect of AO from 1971–1990 and of ENSO from 1991–2010. Our results suggest that the relative importance of these factors in terms of the January climate in Korea has changed on a multidecadal scale.