Author:
Wu Hao,Hou Wei,Zuo Dongdong,Yan Pengcheng,Zeng Yuxing
Abstract
In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) data in Hunan Province from 1961 to 2020 is adopted. Based on the critical slowing down theory, the moving t-test is firstly used to determine the time of drought-flood state transition in the Dongting Lake basin. Afterwards, by means of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient that characterize the phenomenon of critical slowing down, the early-warning signals indicating the drought-flood state in the Dongting Lake basin are explored. The results show that an obvious drought-to-flood (flood-to-drought) event occurred around 1993 (2003) in the Dongting Lake basin in recent 60 years. The critical slowing down phenomena of the increases in the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, which are detected 5–10 years in advance, can be considered as early-warning signals indicating the drought-flood state transition. Through the studies on the drought-flood state and related early-warning signals for the Dongting Lake basin, the reliabilities of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient-based early-warning signals for abrupt changes are demonstrated. It is expected that the wide application of this method could provide important scientific and technological support for disaster prevention and mitigation in the Dongting Lake basin, and even in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
Funder
National Natural Science Foundation of China
The Hunan Provence Natural Science Foundation of China
Subject
Atmospheric Science,Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Reference55 articles.
1. Hydrological Drought at Dongting Lake: Its Detection, Characterization, and Challenges Associated With Three Gorges Dam in Central Yangtze, China
2. IPCC fifth assessment report;Grubler;Weather,2014
3. Comparative Analysis of China Surface Air Temperature Series for the Past 100 Years
4. Characteristics of atmospheric circulation anomalies and drought in summer and autumn in Hunan province;Zhang;J. Arid. Meteorol.,2018
5. The research on drought characteristics of SPI at different time scales in Hunan province;Wu;Adv. Meteorol. Sci. Technol.,2021
Cited by
5 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献