Feasibility of Calculating Standardized Precipitation Index with Short-Term Precipitation Data in China

Abstract

At present, high-resolution drought indices are scarce, and this problem has restricted the development of refined drought analysis to some extent. This study explored the possibility of calculating the standardized precipitation index (SPI) with short-term precipitation sequences in China, based on data from 2416 precipitation observation stations covering the time period from 1961 to 2019. The result shows that it is feasible for short-sequence stations to calculate SPI index, based on the spatial interpolation of the precipitation distribution parameters of the long-sequence station. Error analysis denoted that the SPI error was small in east China and large in west China, and the SPI was more accurate when the observation stations were denser. The SPI error of short-sequence sites was mostly less than 0.2 in most areas of eastern China and the consistency rate for the drought categories was larger than 80%, which was lower than the error using the 30-year precipitation samples. Further analysis showed that the estimation error of the distribution parameters β and q was the most important cause of SPI error. Two drought monitoring examples show that the SPI of more than 50,000 short-sequence sites can correctly express the spatial distribution of dry and wet and have refined spatial structure characteristics.