Winter Persistent Extreme Cold Events in Xinjiang Region and Their Associations with the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation of the Polar Front Jet

Abstract

Winter persistent extreme cold events (WPECEs) often cause great damage to the development of economies and people’s lives. The sub-seasonal variation of the atmospheric circulation is regarded as one of important causes of extreme weather, and is key to propel the extended period prediction. In this paper, we mainly analyze the WPECEs in Xinjiang region and their relationship with the sub-seasonal variation of the East Asian polar front jet (PFJ). The results suggest the persistent extreme cold event (equal or greater than 7 days) occurs most frequently in Xinhe County of Xinjiang region, with obvious inter-annual and inter-decadal variations. Further analysis shows that the variation of the mean temperature in the key area has characteristics of intra-seasonal variation when the WPECE occurs. The result of composite analysis shows that this intra-seasonal variation is related to the sub-seasonal variation of atmospheric circulation, especially the PFJ anomalous activity near Lake Balkhash. By using the power spectrum analysis method, note that the PFJ activity has the characteristics of quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) in WPECEs. On quasi-biweekly scale (10–20-day filtered), the weakening of PFJ, the intensification of the zonal easterly wind in the upper troposphere, the accumulation of the strong cold air, and the intensification of the meridional northerly wind in the lower troposphere enhance the occurrence of WPECEs in Xinjiang. Further investigation indicates that the quasi-biweekly PFJ mainly propagates eastward and southward before the WPECE occurs in Xinjiang, China.