Analog Ensemble Methods for Improving Satellite-Based Intensity Estimates of Tropical Cyclones

Abstract

Accurate, reliable estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are a crucial element in the warning and forecast process worldwide, and for the better part of 50 years, estimates made from geostationary satellite observations have been indispensable to forecasters for this purpose. One such method, the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT), was used to develop analog ensemble (AnEn) techniques that provide more precise estimates of TC intensity with instant access to information on the reliability of the estimate. The resulting methods, ADT-AnEn and ADT-based Error Analog Ensemble (ADTE-AnEn), were trained and tested using seventeen years of historical ADT intensity estimates using k-fold cross-validation with 10 folds. Using only two predictors, ADT-estimated current intensity (maximum wind speed) and TC center latitude, both AnEn techniques produced significant reductions in mean absolute error and bias for all TC intensity classes in the North Atlantic and for most intensity classes in the Eastern Pacific. The ADTE-AnEn performed better for extreme intensities in both basins (significantly so in the Eastern Pacific) and will be incorporated in the University of Wisconsin’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS) workflow for further testing during operations in 2021.