Abstract
This study analysed the dynamics of the international soybean market using econometric techniques and economic models to study the impacts of the US–China trade war. It considered the analysis of “spatial” (horizontal) price transmission during an approximately ten-year period from September 2009 to May 2019 using monthly time-series data. The research focused on the leaders in the international soybean market, namely, China, the USA, the EU, Brazil and Argentina. Several econometric techniques were employed. The stationarity of the price time series was determined using the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test. Structural breaks were inferred using the ADF test with a breaks test and a Bai–Perron multiple break test. The long-term relation/cointegration amongst the series was determined using the Johansen cointegration test (1988), with the previous breaks input as dummy variables. The direction of the causality was inferred using the Granger causality test (1969). The long-term and short-term causal relations were determined using the vector autoregression model (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VECM). The results showed a highly efficient and cointegrated market. The incidents of the trade war, as represented by tariffs and subsidies, had minor effects on the market efficacy, cointegration and price transmission. The arbitrage process of the studied market managed to get around the tariffs. In other words, there was no empirical evidence to support the claim that the law of one price (LOOP) did not hold.
Subject
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous),Development
Reference37 articles.
1. Spatial and Vertical price transmission in food staples market chains in Eastern and Southern Africa: What is the evidence?;Abdulai;Paper presented at the FAO Trade and Markets Division Workshop on Staple Food Trade and Market Policy Options for Promoting Develop,–2
2. The Rise of China as a Paralympic Superpower
3. Summary for Policymakers
4. Agricultural price transmission: China relationships with world commodity markets
5. Identifying price linkages: a review of the literature and an application to the world market of cotton
Cited by
8 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献