Country Economic Security Monitoring Rapid Indicators System

Abstract

Time series analysis is a method of key importance for systems of various hierarchies’ economic security studies. This article’s main goal is to develop an economic security rapid indicators system, introducing threshold values and utilizing indices with a one-month sampling period, and its approbation during Russia’s economic security operational monitoring. In order to develop such a system, the authors accumulated economic security world experience including reliability, visibility and tree structure principles. The authors’ monitoring system includes four spheres: real economy, social, monetary and foreign economic, each of which contains three indicators. In order to organize economic security monitoring, it is proposed to use the index method, which converts indicators into a dimensionless form with integral values in subsequent calculations. Based on integral indices values, the economic security generalized index is synthesized, which can be used to analyze a system’s development trends. We present economic security normalized indicators and integral indices dynamics for the years 2020–2022, which show two crises dynamics. The first is due the COVID-19 pandemic, while the second is associated with economic sanctions against Russia, implemented in 2022. The proposed economic security operational monitoring indicators system can be used effectively in the government’s practical tasks in order to ensure the required level of economic security. This is especially true for rapid diagnosis of crisis phenomena in countries and individual regions.