Flood-Triggering Rainfall and Potential Losses—The Copula-Based Approach on the Example of the Upper Nysa Kłodzka River
Author:
Perz Adam1ORCID, Wrzesiński Dariusz1ORCID, Budner Waldemar W.2, Sobkowiak Leszek1ORCID
Affiliation:
1. Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University, Bogumiła Krygowskiego Str. 10, 61-680 Poznan, Poland 2. Institute of International Business and Economics, Poznań University of Economics and Business, Al. Niepodległości 10, 61-875 Poznań, Poland
Abstract
Floods are natural phenomena, inextricably related to river regimes, which can threaten human health and life, the environment, cultural heritage, economic activity and infrastructure. The aim of the research is to assess the connection between rainfall and river flood risk. The proposed methodology is presented on the example of the upper Nysa Kłodzka River (NKR) catchment and Kłodzko town located on NKR, which are two of the most flood-prone areas in the Odra River basin. The methodology is based on the well-established methods of potential flood losses (PFL) estimation and the copula-based model, allowing an assessment of connections between rainfall and flood losses in a probabilistic way. The results are presented using the ‘synchronicity’ measure. Seventeen significant summer (rainfall-driven) flood waves were selected, for which PFL were estimated and cumulative rainfall was calculated for 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h preceding the flood peak. It was found that the synchronicity of PFL and the 24 h rainfall was the lowest among the analyzed variants, while for the 48 to 120 h rainfall the highest synchronicity was identified at precipitation gauge Podzamek.
Funder
Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences of Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, Poland
Subject
Water Science and Technology,Aquatic Science,Geography, Planning and Development,Biochemistry
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