Seepage Prediction Model for Roller-Compacted Concrete Dam Using Support Vector Regression and Hybrid Parameter Optimization

Abstract

In this study, a seepage prediction model was established for roller-compacted concrete dams using support vector regression (SVR) with hybrid parameter optimization (HPO). The model includes data processing via HPO and machine learning through SVR. HPO benefits from the correlation extraction capability of grey relational analysis and the dimensionality reduction technique of principal component analysis. The proposed model was trained, validated, and tested using 22 years of monitoring data regarding the Shuidong Dam in China. We compared the performance of HPO with other popular methods, while the SVR method was compared with the traditional time-series prediction method of long short-term memory (LSTM). Our findings reveal that the HPO method proves valuable real-time dam safety monitoring during data processing. Meanwhile, the SVR method demonstrates superior robustness in predicting seepage flowrate post-dam reinforcement, compared with LSTM. Thus, the developed model effectively identifies the factors related to seepage and exhibits high accuracy in predicting fluctuation trends regarding the Shuidong Dam, achieving a determination coefficient R2 > 0.9. Further, the model can provide valuable guidance for dam safety monitoring, including diagnosing the efficacy of monitoring parameters or equipment, evaluating equipment monitoring frequency, identifying locations sensitive to dam seepage, and predicting seepage.