Exploiting Rating Prediction Certainty for Recommendation Formulation in Collaborative Filtering

Abstract

Collaborative filtering is a popular recommender system (RecSys) method that produces rating prediction values for products by combining the ratings that close users have already given to the same products. Afterwards, the products that achieve the highest prediction values are recommended to the user. However, as expected, prediction estimation may contain errors, which, in the case of RecSys, will lead to either not recommending a product that the user would actually like (i.e., purchase, watch, or listen) or to recommending a product that the user would not like, with both cases leading to degraded recommendation quality. Especially in the latter case, the RecSys would be deemed unreliable. In this work, we design and develop a recommendation algorithm that considers both the rating prediction values and the prediction confidence, derived from features associated with rating prediction accuracy in collaborative filtering. The presented algorithm is based on the rationale that it is preferable to recommend an item with a slightly lower prediction value, if that prediction seems to be certain and safe, over another that has a higher value but of lower certainty. The proposed algorithm prevents low-confidence rating predictions from being included in recommendations, ensuring the recommendation quality and reliability of the RecSys.