Probability Distribution of Extreme Events in a Baroclinic Wave Laboratory Experiment

Abstract

Atmospheric westerly jet streams are driven by temperature differences between low and high latitudes and the rotation of the Earth. Meandering jet streams and propagating Rossby waves are responsible for the variable weather in the mid-latitudes. Moreover, extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold spells are part of the jet stream dynamics. For many years, a simple analog in the form of a simplified laboratory experiment, the differentially heated rotating annulus, has provided insight into the dynamics of the meandering jet stream. In the present study, probability density distributions of extreme events from a long-term laboratory experiment are studied and compared to the atmospheric probability density distributions. Empirical distributions of extreme value monthly block data are derived for the experimental and atmospheric cases. Generalized extreme value distributions are adjusted to the empirical distributions, and the distribution parameters are compared. Good agreement was found, but the distributions of the experimental data showed a shift toward larger extreme values, and some explanations for this shift are suggested. The results indicate that the laboratory model might be a useful tool for investigating changes in extreme event distributions due to climate change. In the laboratory context, the change can be modeled by an increase in total temperature accompanied by a reduction in the radial heat contrast.