Multi-Temporal Analysis of Past and Future Land-Cover Changes of the Third Pole

Abstract

In the past few decades, both natural and human influences have contributed to the unpredictable rates of land use and land-cover change (LUCC) in glacially devastated places. Monitoring and identifying the geographic and temporal land-cover changes and driving forces in this unique type of area may help to give the scientific basis needed to understand the effects of climate change and human activities on LUCC. The Third Pole is one such landscape that provides inevitable key ecosystem services to over 2 billion people in Asia. However, this important landscape is increasingly being threatened by the impacts of climate change. Policy and program responses to the Third Pole’s mounting socioeconomic challenges are inadequate and lack scientific evidence. Using the land-change model (LCM) and historical data from 1992 onwards, our study attempted to (i) detect the spatial patterns of land use and land-cover changes in the Third Pole from 1992 to 2020; and (ii) project them into 2060. Our analysis shows that the land use and land-cover types in the Third pole are undergoing changes. About 0.07% of the snow and ice have melted in the last three decades, indicating global warming. This melt has resulted in increasing water bodies (0.08%), especially as glacial lakes. This has significantly increased the risk of glacial outburst floods. Other key alpine land-cover types that decreased are bare land (0.6%) and agricultural land (0.05%). These land types represent important habitats for wild flora and fauna, grazing land for livestock, and food for nomads, and their loss will directly degrade ecological services and the health and wellbeing of the nomads. Land cover of forest, shrubs, and scanty vegetation have all increased by 0.3%, 0.02%, and 0.77%, respectively, inducing socio-ecological changes in the Third pole mountains. Further predication analysis showed that snow and ice, along with bare land, will continue to recede whereas forest, grassland, water bodies, shrubland, sparse vegetation, and settlement will increase. These results indicate the increasing impact of global warming that will continue to change the Third Pole. These changes have serious implications for designing adaptation and mitigation interventions in the mountains. We recommend more detailed research to investigate the underlying factors that are changing the Third Pole to develop policy and programs to help humans, livestock, and biodiversity adapt to the changes in these remote and harsh mountains. This will also help to mitigate the effects on downstream communities.