A Dynamic Evaluation Method of Urban Ecological Networks Combining Graphab and the FLUS Model

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has led to landscape fragmentation and habitat loss. As an organic structure integrating green space, an urban ecological network can effectively reduce ecological risks and protect biodiversity if its landscape connectivity is maintained. Chaoyang District in Beijing is facing the challenge of transformational development due to excessive urbanization. Taking this district as the study area, this study assessed the environmental impact of different development scenarios on landscape connectivity indices and explored the most relevant strategies for important green space patches by combining ecological network modeling (Graphab) and scenario simulation techniques (FLUS model). The results show that under the urban expansion scenario, the probability of connectivity (PC) decreases by 59.7%, while under the master plan scenario, it increases by 102.1%. Even under the ideal ecological scenario, the ecological network structure of the region faces structural problems. Patches and corridors with high delta probabilities of connectivity (dPC) are concentrated in the north, with no effective connection between the north and south. Finally, planning strategies and priorities for important patches under different urban development goals are proposed through a strategy matrix. Overall, this study proposes a framework for decision-makers to solve planning conflicts between urban expansion and biodiversity conservation, especially for cities in transition.