Quantifying the Impact of Urban Sprawl on Green Total Factor Productivity in China: Based on Satellite Observation Data and Spatial Econometric Models

Abstract

Worsening environmental effects caused by the rapid large-scale urban expansion in most Chinese cities is a worrying trend. In response, China is advocating an economic transition from rapid (raw growth) to a high-quality development model that incorporates negative environmental consequences. Green total factor productivity (GTFP) is regarded as one of the important approaches for measuring high-quality development. Hence, the aim of this research is to quantify the impact of urban sprawl on GTFP using remote sensing data and spatial econometric models. The primary findings of this study are as follows. (1) The urban sprawl index presents a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2016, indicating that urbanization has slowed; (2) The GTFP scores of Chinese cities are not randomly distributed and thus present significant spatial spillovers; and (3) The results of spatial lag models reveal that spatial spillover of GTFP is significant and positive. In other words, increases in GTFP in neighboring cities promotes GTFP improvements in nearby cities. We also find that the impact of urban sprawl on GTFP is significant and negative, indicating that rapid urban expansion is a contributor to decreased GTFP growth in China. Moreover, urban sprawl has a negative effect on technical change and efficiency change. The main findings can provide policy makers in Chinese cities with scientific foundations to design and implement effective measures to improve GTFP.