Forecasting of Rainfall across River Basins Using Soft Computing Techniques: The Case Study of the Upper Brahmani Basin (India)

Abstract

Floods are potential natural disasters that might disrupt human activities, resulting in severe losses of life and property in a region. Excessive rainfall is one of the reasons for flooding, especially in the downstream areas of a catchment. Because of their complexity, understanding and forecasting rainfalls are challenging. This paper aims to apply the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in predicting average monthly rainfalls by considering several surface weather parameters as predictors. The Upper Brahmani Basin, which extends over 17,504 km2, was considered as a study area. Therefore, an ANFIS model was developed to forecast rainfalls using 37 years of climate data from 1983 to 2020. A hybrid model with six membership functions provided the best forecast for the area under study. The suggested method blends neural network learning capabilities with transparent language representations of fuzzy systems; 75% of data (from 1983 to 2006) was set aside for training and 25% (from 2006 to 2020) for testing. The Gaussian membership function with the hybrid algorithm provided satisfactory accuracy with R-values for training and testing equal to 0.90 and 0.87, respectively. Therefore, a new promising forecasting model was developed for the period from 2021 to 2030. The highest rainfall was forecasted for the period June–August, which is a striking characteristic of the monsoon climate. The study area is relatively close to the equatorial warm climate region. Hence, the proposed model might be of consistent use for regions lying in similar latitudes.