Differences in Longevity and Temperature-Driven Extrinsic Incubation Period Correlate with Varying Dengue Risk in the Arizona–Sonora Desert Region

Author:

Ernst Kacey C.1,Walker Kathleen R.2,Castro-Luque A Lucia3,Schmidt Chris4,Joy Teresa K.2,Brophy Maureen2,Reyes-Castro Pablo3ORCID,Díaz-Caravantes Rolando Enrique3ORCID,Encinas Veronica Ortiz5,Aguilera Alfonso5,Gameros Mercedes6,Cuevas Ruiz Rosa Elena6,Hayden Mary H.7,Alvarez Gerardo8ORCID,Monaghan Andrew9,Williamson Daniel2,Arnbrister Josh2,Gutiérrez Eileen Jeffrey10,Carrière Yves2ORCID,Riehle Michael A.2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA

2. Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA

3. Centro de Estudios en Salud y Sociedad, El Colegio de Sonora, Hermosillo 83000, Sonora, Mexico

4. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA

5. Veterinary Molecular Biology Laboratory, Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, Obregon 85059, Sonora, Mexico

6. Centro de Salud Urbano de Nogales, Nogales 84100, Sonora, Mexico

7. Lyda Hill Institute for Human Resilience, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80918, USA

8. División de Ciencias Biológicas y de la Salud, Universidad de Sonora, Hermosillo 83000, Sonora, Mexico

9. Center for Research Data & Digital Scholarship, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA

10. Divisions of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Innovative Genomics Institute, University of California Berkeley, Berkely, CA 94720, USA

Abstract

Dengue transmission is determined by a complex set of interactions between the environment, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, dengue viruses, and humans. Emergence in new geographic areas can be unpredictable, with some regions having established mosquito populations for decades without locally acquired transmission. Key factors such as mosquito longevity, temperature-driven extrinsic incubation period (EIP), and vector–human contact can strongly influence the potential for disease transmission. To assess how these factors interact at the edge of the geographical range of dengue virus transmission, we conducted mosquito sampling in multiple urban areas located throughout the Arizona–Sonora desert region during the summer rainy seasons from 2013 to 2015. Mosquito population age structure, reflecting mosquito survivorship, was measured using a combination of parity analysis and relative gene expression of an age-related gene, SCP-1. Bloodmeal analysis was conducted on field collected blood-fed mosquitoes. Site-specific temperature was used to estimate the EIP, and this predicted EIP combined with mosquito age were combined to estimate the abundance of “potential” vectors (i.e., mosquitoes old enough to survive the EIP). Comparisons were made across cities by month and year. The dengue endemic cities Hermosillo and Ciudad Obregon, both in the state of Sonora, Mexico, had higher abundance of potential vectors than non-endemic Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. Interestingly, Tucson, Arizona consistently had a higher estimated abundance of potential vectors than dengue endemic regions of Sonora, Mexico. There were no observed city-level differences in species composition of blood meals. Combined, these data offer insights into the critical factors required for dengue transmission at the ecological edge of the mosquito’s range. However, further research is needed to integrate an understanding of how social and additional environmental factors constrain and enhance dengue transmission in emerging regions.

Funder

NIH-NIAID

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Virology,Infectious Diseases

Reference47 articles.

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5. Evidence for an Overwintering Population of Aedes aegypti in Capitol Hill Neighborhood, Washington, DC;Lima;Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg.,2016

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