Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Intense Convective Storms Tracks in a Densely Urbanized Italian Basin

Abstract

Intense convective storms usually produce large rainfall volumes in short time periods, increasing the risk of floods and causing damages to population, buildings, and infrastructures. In this paper, we propose a framework to couple visual and statistical analyses of convective thunderstorms at the basin scale, considering both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the process. The dataset analyzed in this paper contains intense convective events that occurred in seven years (2012–2018) in the Seveso-Olona-Lambro basin (North of Italy). The data has been acquired by MeteoSwiss using the Thunderstorm Radar Tracking (TRT) algorithm. The results show that the most favorable conditions for the formation of convective events occur in the early afternoon and during summertime, confirming the key role of the temperature in atmospheric convection. The orography emerged as a driver for convection, which takes place more frequently in mountain areas. The storm paths analysis shows that the predominant direction is from South-West to North-East. Considering storm duration, long-lasting events reach higher values of radar reflectivity and cover more extended areas than short-lasting ones. The results obtained can be exploited for many practical applications including nowcasting, alert systems, and sensors deployment.