Research on the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Coupling Coordination Relationship of the Energy–Food–Water System in the Xinjiang Subregion

Abstract

In the Xinjiang region, the sustainable management of water resources, energy, and food is crucial for regional development. This study establishes a coupling evaluation index for energy–food–water (EFW) systems from the perspectives of supply, consumption, and efficiency. Using an integrated EFM-CDD-RDD-CCDM approach, an assessment of the coupling and coordination levels of the EFW systems in 14 cities within Xinjiang was conducted for the period of 2004 to 2020. Additionally, the method of obstacle degree identification was utilized to determine the main barriers affecting the EFW systems. Key findings included the following. (1) In terms of individual system coordination indices, the water resource systems exhibited overall higher coordination (ranging from 0.30 to 0.72) with comparatively minor spatial variability, while the energy (from 0.18 to 0.81) and food (from 0.12 to 0.83) systems showed greater temporal and spatial fluctuations. From 2004 to 2020, improvements were observed in the coordination of food and water resource systems, whereas a decline was noted in the coordination of the energy subsystem. (2) Prior to 2011, the coupling of food–water and energy–food systems showed an upward trend, whereas the energy–water coupling decreased annually by 2.62%, further highlighting the tensions between energy development and water resource constraints in Xinjiang. (3) The comprehensive coupling coordination index of the Xinjiang EFW systems ranged between 0.59 and 0.80; between 2004 and 2020, there was an oscillatory increase. From 2004 to 2016, the coupling and coordination degree across the municipalities generally improved, with the regions on the western side and southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the Altai Mountains, and the northwestern edge of the Junggar Basin exhibiting the highest levels, followed by the three prefectures in southern Xinjiang. (4) The EFW obstacle degree posed by the food systems in Xinjiang and its divisions showed a decreasing trend from 2004 to 2020, with the energy system identified as the main factor affecting the coupling and coordination degrees of the EFW systems (increasing by 44% to 52%). Therefore, it is imperative to accelerate the energy transition and optimization in the lead energy development and production areas of Xinjiang. This research provides a scientific basis for Xinjiang’s sustainable development strategies and highlights potential directions for the future optimization of resource management.