Should I Stay or Should I Go? Tourists’ COVID-19 Risk Perception and Vacation Behavior Shift

Abstract

Without a doubt, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a tremendous impact on global tourism for at least two reasons: (1) imposed systematic travel restrictions that discourage people from traveling even though they would like to; and (2) increased travel anxiety due to the perceived risk of the COVID-19 virus, causing people to change their typical travel behavior. This study aims to explore the role of Covid-19 in shaping future travel behavior. More specifically, following the general model of vacation behavior and the role of risk in travel behavior, we investigate how COVID-19 influences travelers’ perceptions of risk and how this affects planned vacation behavior. The results show that COVID-19 risk perception per se influences typical forms of vacation behavior, but this risk also leads to the development of travel anxiety, which additionally influences only some forms of vacation behavior. Empirical findings show that general anxiety, which is not associated with Covid-19 risk perception, also predicts some forms of planned changes in vacation behaviour. The study concludes with recommendations on how to reduce traveler uncertainty in order to recover international leisure travel.