Risk Assessment and Pressure Response Analysis of the Water Footprint of Agriculture and Livestock: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region in China

Abstract

Excessive water consumption, associated with regional agriculture and livestock development and rapid urbanization, has caused significant stress to the ecological health and sustainable use of water resources. We used the water footprint theory to quantify the spatiotemporal characteristics and variation in the water footprint of agriculture and livestock (WF-AL) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China (2000–2016). We predicted the spatial distribution and sustainability of regional water resources at different levels of annual precipitation. Results showed that the average county WF-AL rose from 8.03 × 108 m3 in 2000 to 10.89 × 108 m3 in 2016. There was spatial heterogeneity compared to the average city WF-AL. The WF-AL varied between the mountains and the plains. The scale of the WF-AL was one of the main reasons for differences in the consumption and distribution of water resources. The development of regional water resources deteriorated from a stable state to an unstable state from 2000 to 2016. Only 5.8% of the areas maintained a stable state of water resources. Even in the predicted wet years, no improvements were found in the instability of water resources in four areas centered on the counties of Xinji, Daming, Luannan, and Weichang. To achieve a medium and long-term balance between WF-AL development and water resource recovery, the WF-AL should be limited and combined with reservoir and cross-regional water transfer.