Combining Hydrological Modeling and Regional Climate Projections to Assess the Climate Change Impact on the Water Resources of Dam Reservoirs

Abstract

Climate change may significantly impact the availability and quality of water resources in dam reservoirs by potentially altering the hydrological regime of lake tributaries and the corresponding flow–duration curves. Hydrological models driven by climate projections (downscaled to the watershed scale and bias corrected to eliminate systematic errors) are effective tools for assessing this potential impact. To assess the uncertainty in future water resource availability, resulting from the inherent uncertainty in climate model projections, an ensemble of climate models and different climate scenarios can be considered. The reliability and effectiveness of this approach were illustrated by analyzing the potential impact of climate change on the water availability at Brugneto Lake in northern Italy. This analysis was based on climate projections derived from an ensemble of 13 combinations of General Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models under two distinct scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The semi-distributed HEC-HMS model was adopted to simulate the hydrological response of the basin upstream of the lake. The hydrological model parameters were calibrated automatically via the PEST software package using the inflows to the lake, estimated through a reverse level pool routing method, as observed values. Future water availability was predicted for short- (2010–2039), medium- (2040–2069), and long-term (2070–2099) periods. The results indicate that the uncertainty in reservoir inflow is primarily due to the uncertainty in future rainfall. A moderate reduction in water availability is expected for Brugneto Lake by the end of the current century, accompanied by modifications in the flow regime. These changes should be considered when planning future adaptation measures and adjusting reservoir management rules.