The Use of Fuzzy Modelling Based on Expert Knowledge to Determine Poland’s Energy Security Index Taking into Account Political Conditions

Author:

Joostberens Jarosław1,Rybak Aurelia1ORCID,Rybak Aleksandra2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland

2. Department of Physical Chemistry and Technology of Polymers, Faculty of Chemistry, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland

Abstract

This article presents the results of research on the energy security index in Poland. Since the development of renewable energy sources forced by the transformation of the national energy system will require an increased supply of rare earth elements, the level of demand for these metals was taken into account when determining the energy security index. Furthermore, the development of renewable energy sources in Poland will directly depend on the volume of energy demand and, as the events of previous years have shown, on political and legal conditions, especially in the case of wind energy. Since some of these factors are qualitative, it was impossible to use a quantitative method. Therefore, fuzzy sets were used. Fuzzy modelling is based on expert knowledge. Using this method, the authors created three alternative scenarios for the development of Poland’s energy security index: pessimistic, optimistic, and the most probable.

Funder

Ministry of Science and Higher Education

Publisher

MDPI AG

Reference39 articles.

1. Security of Supply and Energy Policy in Western Europe;Lubell;World Politics,1961

2. Energy and Security in the 1980s;Colglazier;Annu. Rev. Energy,1983

3. Dospinescu, O., and Dospinescu, N. (2018, January 17–20). A profitability regression model of Romanian stock exchange’s energy companies. Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Informatics in Economy Education, Research & Business Technologies, Iasi, Romania.

4. Sustainable energy transition readiness: A multicriteria assessment index;Neofytou;Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev.,2020

5. Energy Security in the 1990s;Yergin;Foreign Aff.,1988

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3