Evaluation of the Sensitivity of Medicane Ianos to Model Microphysics and Initial Conditions Using Satellite Measurements

Abstract

Tropical-like cyclone (TLC or medicane) Ianos formed during mid-September 2020 over the Southern Mediterranean Sea, and, during its mature stage on days 17–18, it affected southern Italy and especially Greece and its Ionian islands, where it brought widespread disruption due to torrential rainfall, severe wind gusts, and landslides, causing casualties. This study performs a sensitivity analysis of the mature phase of TLC Ianos with the WRF model to different microphysics parameterization schemes and initial and boundary condition (IBC) datasets. Satellite measurements from the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission-Core Observatory (GPM-CO) dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) sea-surface wind field were used to verify the WRF model forecast quality. Results show that the model is most sensitive to the nature of the IBC dataset (spatial resolution and other dynamical and physical differences), which better defines the primary mesoscale features of Ianos (low-level vortex, eyewall, and main rainband structure) when using those at higher resolution (~25 km versus ~50 km) independently of the microphysics scheme, but with the downside of producing too much convection and excessively low minimum surface pressures. On the other hand, no significant differences emerged among their respective trajectories. All experiments overestimated the vertical extension of the main rainbands and display a tendency to shift the system to the west/northwest of the actual position. Especially among the experiments with the higher-resolution IBCs, the more complex WRF microphysics schemes (Thompson and Morrison) tended to outperform the others in terms of rain rate forecast and most of the other variables examined. Furthermore, WSM6 showed a good performance while WDM6 was generally the least accurate. Lastly, the calculation of the cyclone phase space diagram confirmed that all simulations triggered a warm-core storm, and all but one also exhibited axisymmetry at some point of the studied lifecycle.