Estimating the Changes in Glaciers and Glacial Lakes in the Xixabangma Massif, Central Himalayas, between 1974 and 2018 from Multisource Remote Sensing Data

Abstract

The continuous melting of valley glaciers can impact the water levels of glacial lakes and create glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The Xixabangma massif is one of the most populated areas in the Himalayas and has suffered from multiple GLOFs. To estimate the glacier melting rate in the past four decades and analyze the outburst risk of glacial lakes in the Xixabangma massif, we determined changes in glacier mass balance, glacier area and glacial lake area based on KH-9 images, TanDEM-X images, Landsat images, SRTM DEM and ICESat-2 elevations. Our results show that, from 1974 to 2018, the total glacier area shrank from 954.01 km2 to 752.46 km2, whereas the total glacial lake area grew from 20.90 km2 to 38.71 km2. From 1974 to 2000, 2000 to 2013 and 2013 to 2018, the region-wide glacier mass balance values were −0.16 m w.e./a, −0.31 m w.e./a and −0.29 m w.e./a, respectively. Three glacial lakes, named Gangxico, Galongco and Jialongco, respectively, expanded by 127.14%, 373.45% and 436.36% from 1974 to 2018, and the mass loss rates of their parent glaciers from 2000 to 2013 increased by 81.72%, 122.22% and 160.00% relative to those during 1974 to 2000. The dams of these three lakes are unstable, and their drainage valleys directly connect to a major town and its infrastructure. Due to current high-water levels, possible external events such as ice collapse, landslide, heavy rainfall and earthquakes can easily trigger GLOFs. Hence, we deemed that the Gangxico, Galongco and Jialongco glacial lakes are dangerous and require special attention.