Dynamic Assessment of the Impact of Flood Disaster on Economy and Population under Extreme Rainstorm Events

Abstract

In the context of climate change and rapid urbanization, flood disaster loss caused by extreme rainstorm events is becoming more and more serious. An accurate assessment of flood disaster loss has become a key issue. In this study, extreme rainstorm scenarios with 50- and 100-year return periods based on the Chicago rain pattern were designed. The dynamic change process of flood disaster loss was obtained by using a 1D–2D coupled model, Hazard Rating (HR) method, machine learning, and ArcPy script. The results show that under extreme rainstorm events, the direct economic loss and affected population account for about 3% of the total GDP and 16% of the total population, respectively, and built-up land is the main disaster area. In addition, the initial time and the peak time of flood disaster loss increases with an increasing flood hazard degree and decreases with the increase in the return period. The total loss increases with the increase in the return period, and the unit loss decreases with the increase in the return period. Compared with a static assessment, a dynamic assessment can better reveal the development law of flood disaster loss, which has great significance for flood risk management and the mitigation of flood disaster loss.