Modeling Aluminum Stocks and Flows in China until 2050 Using a Bottom-Up Approach: Business-As-Usual Scenario Analysis

Abstract

Aluminum metal is used in a wide range of applications such as construction, transportation, power, and aerospace. Previous studies have mainly used a top-down approach to explore future aluminum stocks and flows in China. In this study, we developed a dynamic material flow analysis model using a bottom-up approach to simulate aluminum flows and stocks in China until 2050, based on current government and sector policies. The results show that China’s aluminum stocks will be nearly saturated by 2050, with a total and per capita of 591 million tons (Mt) and 449 kg/per, respectively. The domestic demand for aluminum will grow until 2030 and will remain relatively stable thereafter at around 28–30 Mt. Construction and transport are the two sectors with the highest demand for aluminum, accounting for over 60% of the total aluminum demand. The domestic aluminum scrap will increase almost sevenfold, from 2.7 Mt to 20.0 Mt between 2020 and 2050. However, even assuming a 90% recycling rate, secondary aluminum will at best meet around 70% of demand by 2050. To realize sustainable development in China’s aluminum industry, extending the life of aluminum products and increasing aluminum scrap recycling are sensible measures.