Influence of Parameter Uncertainties in Carbon Footprint Assessments on the Magnitude of Product-Related Ecological Measures

Abstract

This study seeks to provide guidance on how top-down greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (GHG ERTs), deriving, for example, from corporate decarbonization strategies, can be translated into quantifiable targets for component measures. Furthermore, it shows how these targets need to be adjusted during the development process to account for parameter uncertainties resulting from the lack of data availability and validity in the early design stage. The scope of the analysis focuses on ecological measure magnitude (EMM) targets for mass reduction and the content of recycled material. The study is split into two sections: The first section introduces a method on how to calculate EMMs based on a partial carbon footprint assessment (CFPA). The second and main section elaborates on an analysis of how parameter uncertainties in the CFPA influence initially defined EMM targets by using perturbation analysis. In the presented paper, the method is applied exemplarily to an automotive component in an internal combustion engine vehicle. The study shows that a parameter uncertainty in the environmental impact of the mass-induced use phase or the primary material production (and semi-finished product provision) has a significant influence on the required EMMs. In the authors’ opinion, this study can increase the awareness of how CFPA parameter uncertainties can affect the credibility of EMM development targets. The used approach can help designers and engineers to minimize the risk of a non-fulfillment of GHG emission-related development targets.