Estimating Patient-Level Uncertainty in Seizure Detection Using Group-Specific Out-of-Distribution Detection Technique

Abstract

Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder affecting around 1% of the global population, characterized by recurrent epileptic seizures. Accurate diagnosis and treatment are crucial for reducing mortality rates. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) algorithms have shown potential in aiding clinicians with seizure detection in electroencephalography (EEG) data. However, these algorithms face significant challenges due to the patient-specific variability in seizure patterns and the limited availability of high-quality EEG data for training, causing erratic predictions. These erratic predictions are harmful, especially for high-stake domains in healthcare, negatively affecting patients. Therefore, ensuring safety in AI is of the utmost importance. In this study, we propose a novel ensemble method for uncertainty quantification to identify patients with low-confidence predictions in ML-based seizure detection algorithms. Our approach aims to mitigate high-risk predictions in previously unseen seizure patients, thereby enhancing the robustness of existing seizure detection algorithms. Additionally, our method can be implemented with most of the deep learning (DL) models. We evaluated the proposed method against established uncertainty detection techniques, demonstrating its effectiveness in identifying patients for whom the model’s predictions are less certain. Our proposed method managed to achieve 87%, 89% and 75% in accuracy, specificity and sensitivity, respectively. This study represents a novel attempt to improve the reliability and robustness of DL algorithms in the domain of seizure detection. This study underscores the value of integrating uncertainty quantification into ML algorithms for seizure detection, offering clinicians a practical tool to gauge the applicability of ML models for individual patients.