VS-Cambium-Developer: A New Predictive Model of Cambium Functioning under the Influence of Environmental Factors

Abstract

Climate changes influence seasonal tree-ring formation. The result is a specific cell structure dependent on internal processes and external environmental factors. One way to investigate and analyze these relationships is to apply diverse simulation models of tree-ring growth. Here, we have proposed a new version of the VS-Cambium-Developer model (VS-CD model), which simulates the cambial activity process in conifers. The VS-CD model does not require the manual year-to-year calibration of parameters over a long-term cell production reconstruction or forecast. Instead, it estimates cell production and simulates the dynamics of radial cell development within the growing seasons. Thus, a new software based on R programming technology, able to efficiently adapt to the VS model online platform, has been developed. The model was tested on indirect observations of the cambium functioning in Larix sibirica trees from southern Siberia, namely on the measured annual cell production from 1963 to 2011. The VS-CD model proves to simulate cell production accurately. The results highlighted the efficiency of the presented model and contributed to filling the gap in the simulations of cambial activity, which is critical to predicting the potential impacts of changing environmental conditions on tree growth.