Climate Refuges in Nigeria for Oil Palm in Response to Future Climate and Fusarium Wilt Stresses

Abstract

The detrimental stresses of future climate change are well known and decisions are required to reduce their effects. Climate and disease stresses cause severe damage to plants and it is essential to understand how they will respond. Oil palm (OP) is an Fusarium important crop for many countries. The palm originated in Africa, where palm oil is produced in the largest amount within the continent by Nigeria. OP becomes stressed by climate change and wilt, a devastating disease of OP in Africa. Previous methods to determine the suitability of future climate on OP in continents and whole countries were applied to Nigeria, which is the first time an individual country has been assessed in this manner. Climate maps of Nigeria were divided equally into 16 regions from north to south and east to west to determine the future suitable climate for growing OP. CLIMEX and narrative modelling were used to determine suitability for growing OP and Fusarium wilt incidence for current time and 2050. Maps from published papers were employed directly thereby facilitating the procedure. A distinct latitudinal increasing trend from north to south in suitable climate was observed, which was unexpected. A decreasing longitudinal trend from west to east was also observed. These differences in suitable climates may allow refuges for OP in the future. The growth of OP in the south of Nigeria may be largely unaffected by climate change by 2050, unlike the north. The procedures allow policy decisions at state and national levels to be made from empirical data, which do not otherwise exist. States with low amounts of OP and where the climate deteriorates greatly, could usefully be abandoned. Other low palm oil producers, where the climate does not deteriorate greatly, could be encouraged to develop OP. Little requires to be done in the high producing states where the climate does not deteriorate. In all cases, the environmental impacts require thorough assessment. Climate change requires reduction as indicated in recent Conference of the Parties meetings.