Spatio-Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Main Grain Crop Water Productivity in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

To reveal the relationship between agricultural water resource consumption and grain production in the Yellow River Basin, the irrigation water productivity (WPI), crop water productivity (WPC), total inflow water productivity (WPT), and eleven influencing factors were selected. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and driving factors of water productivity of the main crops in the Yellow River Basin were analyzed with the spatial autocorrelation analysis, grey correlation analysis, sensitivity analysis, and relative contribution rate. The results showed that the minimum mean values of WPI, WPC, and WPT were 0.22, 0.35, and 0.18 kg/m3 in Qinghai, respectively, the maximum mean value of WPI was 2.11 kg/m3 in Henan, and the maximum mean values of WPC and WPT were 0.71 and 0.61 kg/m3 in Shandong, respectively. The changing trends in WPI and WPT in Qinghai and in WPC in Shandong were insignificant, whereas the WPI, WPC, and WPT in other provinces showed a significant increasing trend. Water productivity displayed a certain spatial clustering feature in the Yellow River Basin in different years, such as a high-high (H-H) aggregation in Henan in 2005, and an H-H aggregation in Shanxi in 2015 for WPI. The water productivity had a significant positive correlation with the consumption of chemical fertilizer with a 100% effective component (CFCEC), effective irrigated area (EIA), plastic film used for agriculture (PFUA), and total power of agricultural machinery (AMTP), while it had a significant negative correlation with the persons engaged in rural areas (PERA). There was a large grey correlation degree between the water productivity and the average annual precipitation (AAP), CFCEC, PFUA, consumption of chemical pesticides (CFC), and AMTP in the Yellow River Basin, but their sensitivity was relatively small. The main driving factors were EIA (8.98%), agricultural water (AW, 15.55%), AMTP (12.64%), CFCEC (12.06%), and CPC (9.77%) for WPI; AMTP (16.46%), CFCEC (13.25%), average annual evaporation (AAE, 12.94%), EIA (10.49%), and PERA (10.19%) for WPC; and EIA (14.26%), AMTP (13.38%), AAP (12.30%), CFCEC (10.49%), and PFUA (9.69%) for WPT in the Yellow River Basin. The results can provide support for improving the utilization efficiency of agricultural water resources, optimizing the allocation of water resources, and implementing high-quality agricultural developments in the Yellow River Basin.