Thermal Fatigue Life Prediction under Temperature Uncertainty for Shot Sleeve of Squeeze Casting Machine

Abstract

To quantify the influence of temperature uncertainty on thermal fatigue life prediction of a shot sleeve in an injection mechanism, an uncertainty analysis method based on a Kriging surrogate model and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was proposed. The training samples of the surrogate model were obtained by a finite element simulation, and the response relationships between input variables, such as pouring and preheating temperature, and target variables, such as strain and stress, were constructed by the Kriging surrogate model. The input variables were sampled by the MCS, and the predicted stress and strain parameters were combined with the modified universal slope equation to predict the thermal fatigue life of the shot sleeve. The statistical characteristics of the predicted life were obtained. The comparative analysis results indicate that the predicted life considering temperature uncertainty is more accurate than the deterministically predicted value.