Emergency Decision-Making for Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project Using Case-Based Reasoning and Prospect Theory

Abstract

The middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is one of the crucial frameworks of China’s water network and an essential channel for water resource allocation in North China. The safe operation of the project has a huge impact on regional economic development, social stability and other aspects. The objectives of this research are to improve the disposal efficiency of all kinds of accidents during the operation of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, reduce people’s property losses and ensure the safety of water supply along the line. This paper will put forward a new emergency decision-making method based on case-based reasoning technology and prospect theory. The method is divided into two parts: (1) Collecting the historical case information and building the case library. The frame representation in the case-based reasoning technology is used to describe the characteristics of historical cases and adopt the two-level method of historical cases fast retrieval and similarity fuzzy matching retrieval to complete the preliminary selection of emergency plans; (2) The decision-making and optimization model of disposal plans based on prospect theory, namely, using the value function and probability weight classification to measure the prospect value of similar schemes and selecting the optimal disposal scheme, in order to improve the science and rationality of the decision-making results. Finally, examples are taken to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.