A New Regional Distributed Photovoltaic Power Calculation Method Based on FCM-mRMR and nELM Model

Abstract

As the proportion of distributed photovoltaic (DP) increases, improving the accuracy of regional distributed photovoltaic power calculation is crucial to making full use of PV and ensuring the safety of the power system. The calculation of regional power generation is the key to power prediction, performance evaluation, and fault diagnosis. Distributed photovoltaic plants (DPP) are characterized by scattered distribution and small installed capacity, lots of DPPs are not fully monitored, and their real-time output power is difficult to obtain. Therefore, to improve the observability of DPPs and increase the accuracy of calculation, a new method that combines with fuzzy c-means (FCM), Max-Relevance and Min-Redundancy (mRMR) and Extreme Learning Machine(ELM), which can calculate the regional DPP output power without meteorological data is proposed, and validated using actual operational data of regional DPPs in China. The calculations results show good robustness in different months. The innovation of this study is the combination of the benchmark DPP selection method FCM-mRMR and the power calculation method nELM, and the mean absolute error (MAPE) of the proposed method is 0.198 and the coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.996.