Education- and Income Inequality as Drivers of Violent Property Crime in South Africa: A System Dynamics Model

Abstract

Crime statistics indicate that the total number of annually reported crimes decreased steadily between 2008 and 2019 in South Africa. However, annually reported robberies have been steadily increasing over the same period. Additionally, South Africa remains plagued by high income inequality. This paper presents a system dynamics simulation model describing the relationships between education inequality, income inequality and robbery in South Africa. The model employs strain theory to project the effectiveness of interventions aimed at increasing South African education levels to decrease income inequality and thereby reduce robbery. The model explored robbery prevention interventions aimed at increasing South African education levels to reduce the current high level of income inequality. The results suggest that reducing robbery incidents through improved education levels will require a long time to become effective but will have long-lasting effects. Furthermore, the results indicate that combinations of interventions generate more substantial effects than the sum of effects produced by interventions applied in isolation.