Towards Forest Conservation Planning: How Temperature Fluctuations Determine the Potential Distribution and Extinction Risk of Cupressus funebris Conifer Trees in China

Abstract

This study focused on assessing the impact of climate change on Cupressus funebris, one of the important endemic conifer species in China. The impact of fluctuations in temperature on the potential distribution and extinction risk of the C. funebris was evaluated using species distribution modelling. The outcomes of this current study revealed that the species was mainly distributed in mountainous forest areas, and climate variables played a major role in the distribution of this conifer tree. Under climate change, the threatened conifer will be mainly concentrated in mountainous forests and is projected to undergo contraction in distribution and shift northward. The conservation status of C. funebris is projected to be uplisted to “Near Threatened” status under the SSP5_8.5 scenario by 2040 and to the “Least Concern” status under all the other investigated climate and dispersal scenarios. Despite the high capacity of the species for adaptation to environmental changes, part of its AOO might be lost under severe climate change conditions. Key conservation areas were identified, and suggestions for redesigning some of the current natural reserves in the forested area where the species is found were proposed for the conservation of this key coniferous species. The stable area in the northwestern part of Yunnan in the Hengduan Mountain Forest can serve as a promising area for C. funebris reintroduction through afforestation programs.