Probabilistic Slope Seepage Analysis under Rainfall Considering Spatial Variability of Hydraulic Conductivity and Method Comparison

Abstract

Due to the spatial variability of hydraulic properties, probabilistic slope seepage analysis becomes necessary. This study conducts a probabilistic analysis of slope seepage under rainfall, considering the spatial variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Through this, both the commonly used Monte Carlo simulation method and the proposed first-order stochastic moment approach are tested and compared. The results indicate that the first-order analysis approach is effective and applicable to the study of flow processes in a slope scenario. It is also capable of obtaining statistics such as mean and variance with a high enough accuracy. Using this approach, higher variabilities in the pressure head and the fluctuation of the phreatic surface in the slope are found with a higher value of the correlation length of the saturated hydraulic conductivity. The Monte Carlo simulation is found to be time-consuming: at least 10,000 realizations are required to reach convergence, and the number of realizations needed is sensitive to the grid density. A coarser grid case requires more realizations for convergence. If the number of realizations is not enough, the results are unreliable. Compared with Monte Carlo simulation, the accuracy of the first-order stochastic moment analysis is generally satisfied when the variance and the correlation length of the saturated hydraulic conductivity are not too large. This study highlights the applicability of the proposed first-order stochastic moment analysis approach in the slope scenario.