Is Season of Diagnosis a Predictor of Cancer Survival? Results from the Zurich Cancer Registry

Abstract

In Switzerland, there is a large seasonal variation in sunlight, and vitamin D deficiency is relatively common during winter. The season of diagnosis may be linked to cancer survival via vitamin D status. Using data from the Cancer Registry of Zurich, Zug, Schaffhausen, and Schwyz with more than 171,000 cancer cases registered since 1980, we examined the association of the season of diagnosis with survival for cancers including prostate (ICD10 code C61; International Categorization of Diseases, version 10), breast (C50), colorectal (C18-21), lung (C34), melanoma (C43), and all sites combined. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the differences in the all-cause mortality by the season of the diagnosis. Winter was used as the reference season. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for all the cancers combined (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and for prostate (in men), breast (in women), colorectal, lung cancer, and melanomas, separately. A diagnosis in summer and/or autumn was associated with improved survival in all the sites combined for both sexes (men: HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.96–0.99]; women: HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.94–0.99]) and in colorectal (HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.84–0.99]), melanoma (HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.65–1.00]), and breast cancer (HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.94–0.99]) in women. Our study results suggest that a cancer diagnosis in summer and/or autumn is associated with a better prognosis. The improved seasonal survival coincides with the seasonal variation of sun-induced vitamin D, and vitamin D may play a protective and beneficial role in cancer survival.