A Grey-System Theory Approach to Assess the Safety of Gas-Supply Systems

Abstract

The continuity of gas-supply service is a major concern for all gas-supply operators. A safety review of a gas-supply system could help to mitigate the potential repercussions of supply disruptions. Disruptions occur at random due to systemic failures in gas distribution networks. Assessing the operational safety of gas distribution networks is challenging and complex, especially when operational data are limited or associated with high uncertainty. This paper focuses on gas leak incidents. Natural gas leaks disrupt the production process and endanger the ecosystem. Mechanically originated damage in pipelines is found to be the major cause of leaks, according to our investigations. This paper proposes a three-parameter risk matrix to be used in the safety analysis of gas-supply systems. This paper then raises the possibility of using grey-system theory. Grey-system theory has been used to overcome the limitations of the conventional matrix method. This choice is motivated by two facts: our data are heterogeneous with a high level of uncertainty, and some of the data are based on experts’ judgement and maintenance reports using qualitative metrics. It is underlined how GST provides insight for the decision-making process, even in the absence of complete information sets. The method developed here is advocated in the context of procedures ensuring the safety and the supply continuity of gas-supply systems.