Phenological Changes and Their Influencing Factors under the Joint Action of Water and Temperature in Northeast Asia

Abstract

Phenology is an important indicator for how plants will respond to environmental changes and is closely related to biomass production. Due to global warming and the emergence of intermittent warming, vegetation in northeast Asia is undergoing drastic changes. Understanding vegetation phenology and its response to climate change is of great significance to understanding the changes in the sustainable development of ecosystems. Based on Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)3g data, and the mean value of phenological results extracted by five methods, combined with climatic data, this study analyzed the temporal changes in phenology and the responses to climatic factors of five vegetation types of broad-leaved, needle-leaf, mixed forests, grassland, and cultivated land in northeast Asia over 33 years (1982–2014). The results showed that, during the intermittent warming period (1999–2014), the start of the growing season (SOS) advancement (Julian days) trend of all vegetation types decreased. During 1982–2014, the average temperature sensitivity of the SOS was 1.5 d/°C. The correlation between the SOS and the pre-season temperature is significant in northeast Asia, while the correlation between the EOS and the pre-season precipitation is greater than that between temperature and radiation. The impact of radiation changes on the SOS is relatively small.