Identifying the Drivers of Caribbean Severe Weather Impacts

Author:

Jury Mark R.12ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Physics Department, University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez, Mayaguez, PR 00681, USA

2. Geography Department, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa, Empangeni 3886, South Africa

Abstract

Severe weather impacts in the central Caribbean are quantified by an objective index of daily maximum wind and rainfall (W•R) in the area 16–19°N, 63–69°W over the period 1970–2021. The index, based on ERA5 hindcast assimilation of satellite and in situ data, peaks from the July to October season as high sea temperatures and weak wind shear promote tropical cyclogenesis. Climate forcing is studied by reducing the W•R index to seasonal values and regressing the time series onto reanalysis fields 10°S–25°N, 180°W–20°E. The outcome reflects Jul–Oct warming in the tropical Atlantic, cooling in the tropical east Pacific (cold tongue), decreased/increased convection over the Pacific/Atlantic, and tropical upper easterly winds. New findings emerge in the Mar–Jun season preceding higher W•R: reduced SW-cloud bands in the northeast Pacific, a convective trough over the equatorial Atlantic, and Caribbean cold-air outbreaks. The multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation index correlates with Jul–Oct Caribbean W•R at 2-month lead time and shows growing influence. Composite analysis of the top-10 years identifies an anomalous Pacific–Atlantic Walker Circulation favoring higher Caribbean W•R. Salinity is below normal and heat flux is downward across the Atlantic. Anomalous low-level airflow inhibits upwelling in the SW Caribbean, deepening atmospheric moisture. A leading case (TC Fiona 2022) demonstrates the environmental conditions underpinning storm intensification. The key drivers of severe weather impacts yield guidance in strategic planning, risk management and disaster preparedness. New insights are gained from a localized index of severe weather.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

General Earth and Planetary Sciences

Reference37 articles.

1. Secular changes of annual and interannual variability in the tropics during the past century;Gu;J. Clim.,1995

2. Physical mechanisms for the association of El Niño and West African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity;Goldenberg;J. Clim.,1996

3. Diaz, H.F., and Markgraf, V. (2020). El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts, Columbia University Press.

4. Environmental patterns associated with active and inactive Caribbean hurricane seasons;Jury;J. Clim.,2020

5. Composite analysis of dust impacts on African easterly waves in the MODIS era;Jury;J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.,2010

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3