Assessment of Urban Resilience and Detection of Impact Factors Based on Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis and GeoDetector Model: A Case of Hunan Province

Abstract

The rapid development of urbanization has led to increasing uncertainties related to urban safety risks, which has brought certain challenges to the sustainable development of cities. The concept of urban resilience has found a new way to improve the ability of a city to absorb and resolve risks. However, the existing literature on the evaluation of urban resilience is mostly developed from a static perspective, lacking a systematic and dynamic understanding of the level of urban resilience. Therefore, this paper takes Hunan Province as the research object, determines the resilience evaluation indicators, collects the data of each indicator by using the observation method and the literature method, then chooses the comprehensive index method and other methods to measure the urban resilience level of Hunan Province in the years of 2010–2021, and observes the dynamic changes in the resilience level. And, we use the GeoDetector model to detect the dominant factors affecting the urban resilience level and the interaction between these factors. The results of this study show that: (1) The level of urban resilience in Hunan Province shows a steady upward trend from 2010 to 2021, but cities with low resilience levels hold a dominant position. Among all subsystems, the level of urban economic resilience is the highest. (2) From 2010 to 2021, the level of urban resilience in Hunan Province indicates a stepwise spatial structure in the spatial pattern, gradually decreasing from east to west. (3) The urban resilience of Hunan Province from 2010 to 2021 has a significant spatial agglomeration effect, mainly manifested as “L-H type” agglomeration and “L-L type” agglomeration. (4) The spatio-temporal differentiation of urban resilience is mainly caused by economic and social factors, while ecological, institutional, and infrastructure factors have a relatively small influence on the level of urban resilience. The interaction of impact factors will have a more significant influence on urban resilience. The research results of this article are of great significance for urban resilience construction in Hunan Province and even the whole country.