Power Source Importance Assessment Based on Load Importance and New Energy Uncertainty

Abstract

With the increasing penetration of new energy sources, the volatility and uncertainty of new energy output can lead to interruptions or fluctuations in the supply of electricity. Power cuts to critical loads can have a significant impact on public safety, social stability, and the economy. Dealing with the effects of uncertainty from new energy sources means we need to find and strengthen the important loads and power sources when designing and operating the power system. Therefore, the assessment of the importance of loads, conventional power sources, and new energy sources is crucial. This paper proposes a power source importance evaluation method based on load importance and new energy uncertainty. The method constructs a load importance evaluation system considering structural characteristics, outage loss, regulation capability, and other factors. To determine the importance of each load, the method uses the ideal solution method and ranks them accordingly. Next, the method calculates the power supply coefficient, which represents the power supply capability of the power source to the critical loads. This calculation involves using the three-point estimation method, which combines the characteristics of the new energy output and the importance of each load. Following that, the evaluation of load importance and the power supply capacity to critical loads is accomplished based on the ideal solution method, taking into account the diversity of power supply characteristics. This comprehensive evaluation allows us to assess the significance of each load and the power supply capability to meet the needs of critical loads, considering the unique characteristics of each power source. Finally, an example analysis is carried out on the IEEE39 to calculate the importance of various types of power sources, which can accurately reflect the power supply capacity of power sources to important loads and verify the validity of the evaluation method. This method provides subsidies for future power system grid planning and operation.