Transportation Resilience Modeling and Bridge Reconstruction Planning Based on Time-Evolving Travel Demand during Post-Earthquake Recovery Period

Abstract

After major earthquakes, communities may experience time-evolving population in terms of size and distribution, and varying travel demands, along with the displacement and recovery of residents caused by the damage and restoration of dwelling units. Community transportation can be significantly affected if the changes in population size and distribution are considerable. As a result, the post-earthquake infrastructure reconstruction process is essentially like urban replanning to meet the realistic traffic needs of the remaining and recovering residents and further maximize the sustainability of the community. To fill the gap in existing studies that considered the travel demand as fixed during the long-term recovery stage, it is important to investigate the effects of time-evolving travel demand on transportation resilience modeling and bridge reconstruction planning during the post-earthquake recovery period. A new methodology is proposed to analyze such impact by assessing the time-dependent resilience performance of transportation networks during the post-earthquake recovery stage. Traffic efficiency and safety are the two resilience performance indicators used to evaluate the transportation network. Post-earthquake infrastructure restoration planning is conducted using a heuristic algorithm based on the time-dependent resilience performance indicator. A demonstrative case study is carried out at Shelby County, Tennessee.