Economic Model and Risk Analysis of Energy Investments Based on Cogeneration Systems and Renewable Energy Sources

Abstract

Today, distributed energy production is a key activity supporting energy systems in many countries around the world. Applicable regulations, fees and subsidies encourage entrepreneurs to look for solutions that will reduce operating costs and limit their negative impact on the natural environment. In the article, it was decided to carry out a technical and economic analysis and investment risk analysis for the distributed production of electricity and heat based on natural gas. Six scenarios were taken into account, depending on the number of gas engines, the use of the photovoltaic installation and the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) system. It has been shown that the most advantageous of the presented solution is the use of a system adjusted to the power of an industrial plant (return on investment in 4th year). The least beneficial for the investor are solutions aimed at the use and resale of energy supplemented with photovoltaic panels and an ORC system. An investment risk analysis and a sensitivity analysis were also performed. It shows how changes in electricity and gas prices and the environmental fee affect the profitability of investments. It has been shown that solutions with variable power are characterised by the lowest investment risk. The summary indicates the possible activities leading to greater economic efficiency. Such actions will be forced in the future by the market, political and environmental situation. Analyses such as these will allow entrepreneurs to thoroughly prepare for the European Union energy modernization process.